Rusia ayudará a Líbano a fortalecer sus fuerzas armadas, (En Inglés)

With the Syrian civil war at its doorstep and Hezbollah waging an active militant campaign within its borders, Lebanon is in dire need of a stronger and more capable military. Today, reports surfaced that Russia has expressed a willingness to help Beirut develop one, though the military aid Moscow has to offer will almost certainly come with strings attached.

Lebanon has been searching for military assistance since February, when Saudi Arabia withdrew its $4 billion aid package to the Lebanese security services. The move was largely a punitive measure in response to Lebanese Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil’s failure to condemn Hezbollah for attacks against Saudi diplomatic missions in Iran. That punishment stung. Lebanon has relied heavily on foreign patrons such as Saudi Arabia, the United States, France and Syria to finance its defense and security budget since its independence in 1943. These patrons have in turn used their funding to gain influence in Lebanese politics. As Beirut struggles to reconcile the country’s competing factions and fill the presidency, which has been vacant since May 2014, its external financiers will play an increasingly important role in shaping Lebanon’s political future.

That is where Russia comes in. Moscow’s interest in supporting Lebanon’s military stems from its broader interest in Lebanese politics, particularly with regard to Beirut’s policies on Syria. Moscow is no stranger to using its relationship with Lebanon to gain access to other Middle Eastern nations. The Soviet Union was one of the first countries to recognize Lebanon as an independent state, and many in Lebanon consider the Soviet Union to have been a stabilizing force during the country’s civil war from 1975-1990.

And so Lebanon, much like neighboring Syria, appears poised to become a strategic partner for Russia once again. This will become even more true as Russia and Saudi Arabia find themselves on opposite sides of the Syrian conflict and peace talks stagnate. Moscow may try to demonstrate its continued regional clout by increasing its presence in Lebanon, where Riyadh’s power is waning.

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Details of Russia’s impending military support will not be discussed until Gen. Jean Qahwaji, head of the Lebanese army, visits Moscow in June. However, previous deals between the two countries could provide some insight into what the Kremlin’s latest aid package will entail. In 2010, Russia struck a similar bargain, in coordination with Syria, to provide military aid to Lebanon. At the time, it was unclear how much of that aid would be a gift and how much would come in the form of a sale, though Russia’s primary motivation for signing the deal was to persuade Lebanon to buy Russian equipment with Saudi money. Likewise, though any new military deal will probably include some aid, it will also aim to increase Russian defense sales — something Moscow desperately needs to replenish its coffers.

In the 2010 deal, Russia offered to give Lebanon a free T-72 tank or a helicopter for every one it purchased. While this offer was eventually dropped, the two sides did finalize a deal on Kornet anti-tank guided missiles and ammunition. According to April 28 reports, Russia’s latest proposal also includes helicopters, rocket launchers and Kornet missiles.

So far, Saudi Arabia has refused to budge on its decision to halt aid to Lebanon, meaning Beirut needs to find a new benefactor, and fast. Of course, Russia is not the only option; Iran has repeatedly offered in the past to send Lebanon military assistance, and that offer might still stand. If it did, Beirut might accept. On Feb. 20, just after Saudi Arabia announced its intention to cancel its funding for the Lebanese military, Lebanese Defense Minister Samir Moqbel announced that Beirut would take arms and military equipment from Tehran, if it offered to supply them. And in early March, a pro-Hezbollah news outlet said Iran might give as much as $10 billion in military assistance to Lebanon. That said, there have not been any concrete reports of Beirut securing Iran’s help, largely because doing so would create controversy in Lebanon, raising questions of whether Tehran would then be able to sway Lebanese policies in its favor.

Though Russian military aid would certainly benefit Lebanon, Beirut still receives assistance from its traditional allies, the United States and United Kingdom. At the end of March, Washington delivered three UH-1H Huey II helicopters, together worth about $26 million, to the Lebanese government. They were a portion of a much larger order for 18 Huey II helicopters that the U.S. State Department authorized in September 2014. In the meantime, British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond has said that the United Kingdom will spend $30 million over the next three years to train more of Lebanon’s land border regiments in urban counterterrorism techniques.

No matter what country Lebanon turns to for help, it will continue to rely on others to protect the stability of the Lebanese state in exchange for a say in Lebanese foreign policy. If the Russian military deal is finalized, it will simply mean yet another country will join the ranks of the many foreign benefactors weighing in on Lebanon’s — and the Middle East’s — future.