Con el adagio: “A shlekhter sholem iz beser vi a guter krig” (es mejor un mal arreglo que un buen pleito) Alan Grayson firmo -así, en Yiddish- su declaración de apoyo al tratado de Irán y determina el final del enfrentamiento con una resonante derrota para AIPAC.
Alan Mark Grayson, a Jewish Democratic Congressman from Florida’s 8th district, on Wednesday issued a statement saying he would reluctantly vote in favor of the President’s Iran deal. Grayson signed his well reasoned, and just a little depressing note with the Yiddish addage: “A shlekhter sholem iz beser vi a guter krig (A bad peace is better than a good war).”
As early as last July, Grayson was still on AIPAC’s list of Congress members who are decidedly opposed to the deal. “I’m concerned [the agreement] is not going to be comprehensive enough—if there is a deal,” he told Tablet. “Rather than a pause in their nuclear program I would want to see it eliminated. Also, there’s been no discussion at all about Iran’s intercontinental ballistic missile program. And it leaves the Iranians with no real pressure regarding their support for terrorism in the Middle East.”
Back in July, Grayson also questioned the $150 billion “signing bonus” for Iran, suggesting the money would be used to support global terror and the Assad regime.
Now Grayson became the 19th Jewish lawmaker to support the deal, helping to make it mathematically impossible (if every member sticks to their commitment) for a presidential veto of a Republican No resolution to be overridden. In fact, as things stand in the Senate, based on a Wednesday CNN report, 42 Democrats are in favor of the deal, and they can prevent a vote altogether—since the filibuster rules require 60 votes to start a debate.
“I will be voting in favor of the Iran nuclear agreement,” Grayson wrote, noting with an almost depressed tone: “The reasons are many and varied, but the reason that weighs most heavily in my mind is the proverbial worst-case scenario:
“Scene 1: Congress rejects the deal. International sanctions fall apart immediately.
“Scene 2: Without disabling any nuclear facilities, Iran receives the $55 billion in accounts receivable for its oil sales.
“Scene 3: Iran ramps up oil production, adding another $20 billion in oil revenue per year.
“Scene 4: The anti-Iran rhetoric of GOP Presidential candidates intensifies; several of them promise to bomb Iran before sundown on Inauguration Day, 2017.
“Scene 5: Iran enriches uranium beyond 20%, and starts to build nuclear weapons, trying to finish just in time to celebrate the ‘Birth of the Prophet’ (Dec. 28 this year, if you’re a Shi’ite)”
In other words, according to Grayson, the barn is empty of most of its horses by now, as America’s European allies have been flocking to Tehran in planeloads to do business. By killing the deal, in effect, the US would be restricting the world community’s ability to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions, while the sanctions, for the most part, have already been lifted.
Grayson adds a few nightmare scenarios he envisions as the outcome of a No vote on the Iran deal, which he dubs the “fork in the road” scenarios:
“Scene 6A: Iran builds several nuclear weapons, with the threat that they will be used in combat, or shared with allies like Hezbollah. A nuclear arms race breaks out in the Middle East.
“Scene 6B: The United States goes to war against Iran, to try to destroy its nuclear facilities. Iran and its allies counterattack against U.S. interests, specifically including U.S. forces and “assets” in the region.
“Scene 6C: Israel goes to war against Iran. The outcome is uncertain, and the possibility looms of perpetual war between two countries separated by two other countries, and a distance of 1000 miles.”
At this point, it appears that the Iran deal will win the day, either in the first round, as the Senate Democrat would muscle down a debate on a resolution; and should the Republican manage somehow to force through a bill that kills the deal, the numbers suggest the President will beat down an attempt to override his veto.
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